Well we’ve seen a couple of days of Trade week so far, seeing a few deals done, plenty of posturing, ridiculous requests and generally, not much of substance happening. An early shock was the trade of Jesse Hogan from the Dockers to the Giants. Not so much the fact he was traded, which was mooted, but the cheapness of the deal. Hogan is still just 25, and has shown his best is good enough at AFL level, but injuries and off-field issues has seemingly diminished his value, but it did seem very generous of the Dockers.
The ‘Views’ have decided to have a look at the remaining week, looking at the different potential trades, players who are up for grabs and the likelihood for changes.
Josh Dunkley: Western Bulldogs ——-> Essendon
Well Josh Dunkley has finally come out and said he wants to leave; the Dogs have been steadfast in their desire to retain him. He’s suggested cultural issues as one reason for leaving, being moved out of the middle as another, whilst the monetary advantages of moving are also pretty clear. Essendon have also offered to bring in his brother Kyle, who was delisted by the Dees, as a sweetener. This one is going to be interesting. The Dogs don’t have to trade him, he’s got 2yrs left on his contract. He’s not completely out of love with the Dogs, so can return in need.
Essendon have 2 first round picks currently, likely to get a 3rd from Saad moving (see below), but have to retain one under AFL rules. The thing is, the Dogs don’t want first round picks due to having to match their NGA draftee Jamarra Ugle-Hagen, who’s likely to be bid on early. It’s here where things get tricky for the Dons. Their future first round pick will have to come in to it, and the Dogs will want more than that. They have little assets by way of players that will appeal to the Dogs, unless they look at Hurley for a couple of years to support their defence.
How it gets done: Honestly, I don’t think it does get done. Will need a 3rd club to help Essendon get it over the line I would think, as Essendon don’t have the draft capital to get it done alone. This one will go right down to the wire, if at all.
Adam Saad: Essendon ——–> Carlton
Saad has indicated he wants to leave Essendon, with the Blues his destination of choice. Carlton have pick 8, which seems overs, whilst Dodoro started his negotiation as that pick plus a gun player. In need, Saad can walk to the preseason draft, which the Blues did with Jack Martin last year. Considering Essendon’s threat of taking Jye Caldwell to the preseason draft, this could be the Blues best option, knowing the Bombers are committed to Caldwell.
How it gets done: Blues have got a few options here, obviously Pick 8 will get it done, despite the posturing from the Bombers. Blues could yet split their pick with the Cats to get 2 first rounders in and ship one of those the Bombers (likely pick 13 from the Eagles), but I’d suggest the Blues will come to the party with Pick 8 and walk away with a minimum of fuss.
Orazio Fantasia: Essendon ——-> Port Adelaide
As is the standard process, Essendon have demanded well and truly overs for a player that has barely played over the last couple of years (sound familiar). Port have offered their 2nd round pick (which is currently 28), which seems about right, but Essendon have started high and hoping Port will stutter. Not sure Port are that desperate for Fantasia, so I’m not sure they’ll pay overs. Adelaide were keen too, however Fantasia wants to move to Port so they are likely to miss out there.
How it gets done: Port aren’t going to offload any of their young guns to get a guy like Fantasia, which is why the starting offer from Dodoro is really just a waste of time. I’m tipping it will be the pick 28 in the end, with maybe some later pick swaps to appease the Bombers. Port won’t break the bank here, and I reckon the Bombers will be happy to get something back for Fantasia. Wouldn’t be surprised to see something like Port’s 28 & 31, for Fantasia and 42, which based on points should appease both clubs. Port get another later pick, to give them enough points to match their father son Jackson Meade.
Jye Caldwell: GWS Giants ——–> Essendon
Discussions didn’t start well, with Dodoro offering a future second-round pick, with an accept it or we take him to the preseason draft. It’s a veiled threat as the Bombers won’t get Caldwell in the preseason draft, with the likes of North, Hawthorn, Sydney (potentially) all having cap space and a specific need for a player like Caldwell. Obviously, you have to start somewhere, but the Giants would be pushing for something a but more tangible than a future 2nd. As previously mentioned, the Dons are likely to have 3 picks in the top 10. One of these is probably too much (though he was a pick 11 and the Giants have put 2yrs of development into him), so the Dons will have to find a later first round pick or sweeten their offer to multiple 2nds
How it gets done: Much will depend on what other moves the Giants have up their sleeve. They are chasing Brayden Preuss from Melbourne, so can they cut their losses and essentially swap Preuss for Caldwell? Do Essendon get Port involved, trying to get a couple of 2nds round picks for Fantasia and then on trade these to the Giants for Caldwell. Again, on a points basis, these two would match a first-round pick.
Brayden Preuss: Melbourne ———> GWS Giants
This is a smart move for Preuss, after strangely moving to Melbourne a couple of years back. He’ll walk in to the No.1 ruck spot, and it’s a superb get for the Giants if they can make this work.
How is gets done: The Dees might play hardball here, but it’s likely a 2nd round pick will be used. The Giants don’t have one yet, so this is where the Caldwell trade might come in to it. If the Giants can get the second-round pick for Caldwell, this is likely to be send to the Dees for the Preuss, who then get Brown as a replacement. Solid bit of work all around
Ben Brown: North Melbourne ———> Melbourne
Brown has made the call to head to Melbourne, and with North keen to offload their key forward, this should be done sooner rather than later. You’d think a second-round pick will get this done.
How this gets done: Melbourne have pick 23, though the Dees might try and offload the later second round pick they get from the Giants for Preuss. There might be some haggling here, but I can’t see this going late into next week. Might be some late pick swaps to help sweeten the deal, but this should be done soon.
Shaun Higgins: North Melbourne——–> Geelong
This is going to be interesting, as Higgins is still one of the Kangaroos best mids, and they don’t necessarily want him to go. The Cats have picks 13, 17, 18 & 35 up their sleeve, but you envision they are going to need a swag of these for Jeremy Cameron. The Cats are keen to remain in the first round of the draft this year, and are certainly keen to retain a couple of them at least. Pick 35 is probably unders for Higgins, so this one might have to wait, as the Cats have some young guys that could attract some interest which might give them the picks they need. He’ll end up at the Cats, it’s just when.
How this gets done: The Cats will probably need to get an earlier 2nd round pick to get this done. Their young midfielder Charlie Constable is keen to look at other options, so could a straight swap be on the cards? Could work for all parties?
Jeremy Cameron: GWS Giants ———> Geelong
Cameron wanted to leave as a free agent, the Cats gave him a huge offer, and the Giants actually matched the offer, the first time this has been done (Adelaide would have matched Dangerfield but the Cats chose to trade prior to the free agency period). The Giants aren’t even taking calls from Geelong, so this is going to be interesting. The Giants have already asked for 2x First rounders, plus a player with Parfitt and Ratugolea mentioned as being wanted. The Cats are keen to retain their first-round picks, based on the age of their list profile, so the matching from the Giants has thrown a spanner in their works.
How it gets done: The Giants aren’t fussed if it does happen or not, so it’s up the Cats to make it work. The Giants primarily want players, not picks, but with Hogan and Preuss coming and their midfield still being strong, Can the Cats convince them to look at taking the 2x first rounds and try and attract some other talent from elsewhere? Expect this one to last till the end of next week. The Giants hold all the cards here.
Tom Hickey: West Coast——–> Sydney
The Swans need ruck help, and Hickey looks to be behind a few at West Coast now. It will be his 4th club, but he’s combative and solid so it’s a good get for the Swans
How it gets done: Would only need a 3rd round, or future 3rd round to get this one sorted. Should be done Friday or Monday.
The Collingwood fire-sale:
Seems the Pies are trying to offload plenty of players to free up cap space. There are 4 main names that keep coming up.
This is the most peculiar one, with the Pies looking to force out Treloar due to his large contract (estimated $800-900k over next few years). It’s only this high as he’s done the right thing by the club and has pushed back his money to help them sign others. By back-ending his contract, he’s made himself a target to be let go of, which is how it’s played out. The silence from the club is deafening, and it’s hard-pressed to see how Treloar stays at the club now.
Where does he land: Interesting to see actually. He’ll want to go to a side pushing for the flag. The Saints are looking closely, and if the Pies are going to pay part of his salary it would depend on how much. The Dogs could be interested if Dunkley leaves, whilst I wouldn’t write-off the Demons making an offer late. Hawthorn & Essendon are chances, but neither look like finals teams next year.
The young winger was a strong performer in 2018 & 2019, however lost his spot this year to Josh Daicos. He’s got interest from Hawthorn, Melbourne might also suit, but I must say it’s a surprise he’s on the market.
Where does he land: I’m tipping he’ll get to Hawthorn. After the loss of Henderson and Smith, they have vacancies on the list. Proven performer, suited to the MCG and the Pies won’t be asking for too much.
Another surprise, considering the performances over the last few years. Struggled badly this season just gone, but he’s one of the players that did struggle in the bubble. Has a truckload to offer, so surprised he’s even on the table.
Where does he land: Interesting to see how serious the Pies are in letting him leave. Is this just a tactic to give him a kick up the ass? He’d suit plenty of teams, and I think he’s one of those players that as other teams start to get active and the deals drop, teams might see how serious the Pies are in letting him go. At this stage, I reckon he’ll stay, but wouldn’t be surprised to see his name thrown up as trade week comes to an end.
Certain to be retained by the Pies now. They are out on Tom McDonald, so can’t see them letting him slip.
The other names mentioned:
Two metre Peter is out of favor at the Suns and looking at his options elsewhere. He’ll have no shortage of suitors you’d think and it’s unlikely he’ll cost too much. With Essendon having lost Daniher and McKernan, he’s be a perfect option for the Bombers to fill their vacant tall forward spots. Is this the man to help out the Dogs & Tim English? Whilst more of a forward than ruck he could be the man to help out Dogs with their ruck/forward troubles?
His name has been bandied about, but the Tigers aren’t keen to let him go so the offers will have to attractive. Tipping he’ll still be a Tiger at the end of all of this, as he’s well liked and whilst he lost his spot late, he’s still a required player.
Clearly out of favor at North, but his contract will be a concern. Would suit the Dees, and I’m sure Ben Brown would be happy to see a player of Polec’s talents coming across. Hawthorn were linked, but age is probably outside of what the Hawks would prefer.